[Hot Issue Stocks] Trump's 'Hoax of the Century' Remark: Uncovering the Fallout for Wind and Solar Stocks

 

3-Line Summary Card

• Conclusion: The increasing possibility of a Trump presidency suggests a potential retreat from green energy policies and a return to fossil fuels.
• Mechanism: A Trump administration's policy changes—like ending subsidies, tightening regulations, and invalidating development zones—would raise capital costs and suppress demand for the green energy industry.
• Impact: Wind and solar stocks are at a disadvantage in both the short and medium term, while traditional energy (oil, gas) and nuclear stocks could benefit.

---

1. A Policy Bombardment: The Prelude to a Seismic Shift in the Energy Market

"It’s the hoax of the century!"

This single statement has shaken energy markets both in Korea and abroad. President Donald Trump recently lambasted wind and solar energy, signaling his intent to reverse related policies. His remarks are not just personal opinions; they serve as a harbinger for the future of U.S. presidential politics and the direction of the next administration's energy policy. His criticism—that massive green subsidies are being poured into wind turbines and solar panels while agricultural land is destroyed—frames the issue not just as one of environmentalism but of economics and national security. As the Biden administration's initiated offshore wind development zones are already being nullified and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) moves to cut green subsidies, market uncertainty is growing.

This article provides an in-depth analysis of how a potential Trump administration's energy policies could affect the energy market. It also identifies the likely beneficiaries and victims among related stocks to help you make smart investment decisions. You will get more than just a news summary; you will gain a practical understanding of the complex policy change mechanisms and learn how to build a real-world investment strategy.

---

2. The Trump Era Energy Policy: An Analytical Framework

Issue Definition: President Donald Trump's critical remarks on wind and solar and his declaration to dismantle related policies. Macroeconomic Link: Policy and regulation changes, rather than macroeconomic variables like interest rates or exchange rates, are the key factors. The abolition of green subsidies could lead to higher capital costs for companies and curb investment. Transmission Channels:

• Cost: The abolition of wind and solar subsidies would significantly worsen the profitability of renewable energy projects.
• Demand: The invalidation of wind and solar development zones would cause project demand to plummet.
• Regulation: The dismantling of strict regulations by the EPA would be a positive for the fossil fuel industry.

Sector Mapping: Wind and solar stocks would be at a disadvantage, while the traditional energy sector and nuclear stocks would have an advantage. Company Level: Companies with a high proportion of sales to the U.S. market would be hit hardest. Companies whose cost structure heavily relies on subsidies would suffer a direct blow.

Risks & Checkpoints: The greatest risk factors are the outcome of the election and the strength of the actual policy implementation. It is essential to continuously monitor future discussions in the U.S. Congress and the status of related legislation.

---

3. Issue → Sector Impact Map (Summary Table)

Issue	Transmission Channel	Advantageous Sectors	Disadvantageous Sectors
Trump Energy Policy	Regulation/Subsidy Abolition	Nuclear, Traditional Energy (Oil, Gas)	Wind, Solar, ESS
	Sentiment Shift	Fossil Fuels, Defense	Green Energy, Green New Deal

 

---

4. Key Terminology Explained

• Green Subsidies: Government subsidies aimed at promoting environmental protection and fostering the renewable energy industry. In the U.S., these are offered as tax credits and grants. The Trump administration has labeled them as waste and abuse, and plans to abolish them. This could be a key factor in weakening the growth of the green industry.
• Outer Continental Shelf (OCS): The part of a continental shelf outside a country's coastline that is suitable for offshore wind development. The Biden administration designated these areas as offshore wind development zones, but the Trump administration has invalidated them, effectively halting related projects.

---

5. In-depth Analysis of New Technology and Methods: The Future of Wind and Nuclear Power

The Trump administration's policies raise fundamental questions about the efficiency of wind power generation. Wind turbines have a high initial investment cost and are unable to generate power when there is no wind. Trump's remark that turbine blades rust and decay after 8 years brings to light real concerns about durability and waste disposal.

 

In contrast, Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology is emerging as a new alternative. Compared to traditional large-scale nuclear plants, SMRs are safer and have lower construction costs and shorter timelines, making them more economical. The Trump administration is likely to abandon its anti-nuclear policy and actively promote the nuclear power industry, which is expected to accelerate related technology development.

---

6. Market Size and Industry Impact

The energy market is divided into traditional energy (oil, gas) and renewable energy (wind, solar). According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), renewable energy accounted for approximately 23% of U.S. electricity generation in 2023. However, this figure could slow or even decline under a Trump administration. This shift in market structure would deal a direct blow to the wind and solar industries while positively affecting the traditional energy industry.

• Direct Impact: The wind turbine manufacturing, solar panel manufacturing, and Energy Storage System (ESS) industries would experience a direct decrease in demand.
• Indirect Spillover: Related parts and materials industries could also be indirectly affected. Conversely, traditional energy industries like oil, gas, and coal are expected to gain growth opportunities with government support.

---

7. Simple Formula Linking to Performance & Valuation

A Trump policy change would directly affect a company's performance and valuation.

Operating Income = Revenue – Variable Costs – Fixed Costs

For a wind company, the abolition of government subsidies would be a factor in revenue reduction. A drop in revenue would lead to a decrease in operating income, which would ultimately result in a lower Earnings Per Share (EPS).

EPS = (Operating Income – Interest Expenses – Taxes) / Number of Shares

Under a Trump administration, investment sentiment towards the green sector could sour, likely leading to a downward revision of valuation multiples like the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER).

---

8. Scenarios and Sensitivity

Scenario	Key Assumption	Estimate
Bear	Trump wins, policies are completely scrapped	Wind and solar stock performance worsens, stock prices decline
Base	Trump wins, policies are gradually reduced	Wind and solar growth slows, traditional energy recovers
Bull	Trump loses, current policies are maintained	Green energy industry growth continues, related stocks rise

 

---

9. Data & Source Reliability Checklist

Since this issue is based on a politician's statement, it's crucial to verify the actual policy implementation. You should regularly check for future bill details, government press releases, and related company filings. It's particularly wise to interpret materials from lobby groups or stakeholders with vested interests conservatively.

---

10. Event Timeline & Checkpoints

You should watch the following event timeline closely:

• Start of revising subordinate laws after inauguration
• Confirmation of relevant policymakers during cabinet formation
• New government budget proposal and approval process

---

11. Strategic Perspective Section

• Mood: Following Trump's remarks, foreign and institutional selling has been observed in the green sector. This suggests a strengthening of risk aversion sentiment.
• Range: At this time, the uncertainty of policy change places this issue in the realm of short-term, news-driven trading. A long-term outlook will depend on the strength of policy implementation after the election.
• Candidates: The primary beneficiaries include traditional energy companies and nuclear related stocks. The risk group includes wind and solar related companies with a high proportion of U.S. exports.

---

12. Stakeholder Analysis

• U.S. Administration (Trump Camp): Their interests are energy independence, economic viability, and job creation. They believe that green policies hinder economic growth and aim to revitalize the fossil fuel industry.
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Aligns with the Trump camp's stance, promoting the abolition of green subsidies. It is the practical executor of these policies.
• Wind & Solar Industries: This stakeholder group faces the greatest risk. Business downsizing is inevitable with the abolition of subsidies, and they will likely try to influence policy change through lobbying.
• Traditional Energy Industry: They will benefit from rising oil prices and the revitalization of the fossil fuel industry. They welcome the policy changes and are expected to exert influence.

---

13. Consumer Benefits and Cautionary Factors

One of the key goals of Trump's policies is to lower electricity costs. He argues that wind and solar power are the main causes of rising electricity rates and aims to reduce consumer burden through cheaper traditional energy. However, in the long run, this could raise concerns about environmental issues and climate change. It is also important to note that energy costs could become unstable due to fluctuations in international oil prices.

---

14. Related Stocks Summary

• Beneficiaries
  • Doosan Enerbility (SMR technology holder): As a developer of SMR technology, a next-generation nuclear power solution, it has a high chance of being a direct beneficiary of the Trump administration's nuclear revitalization policy.
  • Korea Gas Corporation (Traditional energy stock): If the oil and gas industries benefit from Trump's policy changes, a positive indirect impact is expected.
• Risk Stocks
  • CS Wind (Wind turbine tower manufacturer): With a high proportion of U.S. exports, it could be a direct victim of the Trump policy changes. A subsidy cut would likely weaken its competitiveness.
  • Hyundai Energy Solutions (Solar module manufacturer): As the growth of the U.S. solar market slows, a decrease in sales is a potential risk for this company.

Investment Warning: This article is not a solicitation for investment, and all investment decisions should be made based on individual judgment. You are solely responsible for any investment losses.

---

Conclusion

President Donald Trump's remarks are not just political rhetoric. They are a significant sign of a potential shift in the U.S. energy market. Investors in wind and solar stocks should pay close attention to the ripple effect of this issue. It is important to review your investment portfolio in line with the changing trends and to proactively respond by subscribing to related news and checking company filings.

 

#TrumpRelatedStocks #WindStocks #SolarStocks #RenewableEnergy #DoosanEnerbility #CSWind #NuclearStocks #EnergyPolicy